JAIPUR: After Wednesday's sharp swings, the market now looks like it's settling into consolidation mode. According to Pabitro Mukherjee, Deputy Vice President-Research at Bajaj Broking, both Nifty and Bank Nifty are standing at an important juncture right now — one where a handful of clearly defined levels will decide the next move.
This technical picture is playing out at a time when the market is already digesting some heavyweight triggers — the US Federal Reserve's first rate hike in three years, persistent FII selling, and the much-awaited NSE IPO. In an environment like this, chart patterns and key levels matter even more, because they're what tell you whether the current volatility is just noise or the start of a bigger trend shift.
Nifty: Selling Pressure Eases, But the Trend Hasn't Turned Yet
Nifty is currently at 23,217.60. On the daily chart, a sharp bearish candle has been followed by a "High Wave" candle, suggesting that selling pressure at lower levels has been absorbed and the market has shown some resistance to further downside. According to Mukherjee, this pattern points toward consolidation and stock-specific action rather than any clear directional signal.
In simple terms, a "High Wave" candle forms when price swings significantly in both directions during the day but ultimately closes near where it opened. That tells you buyers and sellers are both testing the waters, but neither side is fully in control right now — the market is essentially catching its breath before deciding its next move.
It's also worth noting that Nifty is consolidating right around the 61.8% retracement zone of the previous major rally (22,182 to 24,774), which could point to a base forming at lower levels. At the same time, daily and weekly oscillators are approaching extreme oversold territory — so a pullback (a relief rally) can't be ruled out. In technical terms, a retracement zone is the level where the market typically pauses or reverses after a big rally, and the 61.8% mark is considered one of the most reliable support-resistance zones in Fibonacci analysis.
That said, Nifty hasn't yet formed a Higher High–Higher Low structure, which is why the overall sentiment remains cautious. The 23,600 level, formed by Tuesday's high, is currently the biggest hurdle — only a sustained close above this level would signal a pause in the current downtrend.
On the downside, 23,116 — the almost identical low from both Tuesday and Wednesday — is the immediate support. A break below this level could extend the corrective move toward 23,000 and then 22,800.
Intraday Levels for Nifty
- Resistance: 23,285 and 23,380
- Support: 23,115 and 23,000
Bank Nifty: Holding 56,000, But the Bigger Picture Stays Cautious
Bank Nifty is trading at 56,292.45. On the daily chart, it has formed an "Inside Bar" candle, meaning price stayed within the previous day's range — a sign of consolidation following the recent sharp correction. An Inside Bar pattern is generally seen as the market's "breathing" moment — it suggests that after the sharp moves of recent sessions, both buyers and sellers are pausing to assess the situation before committing to the next big move.
Bank Nifty has reclaimed the 56,000 level, which coincides with the lower band of the broader channel and the lower end of its 11-week trading range of 56,000–58,700. Despite this stabilisation, though, the bigger picture remains cautious, since the index is still trading below key resistance levels and hasn't yet established a sustained Higher High–Higher Low structure.
55,700, last week's low, is the immediate downside trigger. A decisive breach below this level could extend the correction toward 55,200, followed by 54,800.
On the upside, 57,000 remains the key hurdle. A sustained close above 57,000, accompanied by a Higher High–Higher Low formation on the daily chart, would signal a potential pause in the prevailing downtrend.
Intraday Levels for Bank Nifty
- Resistance: 56,500 and 56,800
- Support: 56,000 and 55,700
Bigger Triggers Are in Play Too
Beyond the technical picture, a few major fundamental factors will also drive today's session. The US Federal Reserve has raised interest rates for the first time in three years, strengthening the dollar and keeping US bond yields elevated. As a result, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) remain persistent sellers, though strong buying from domestic institutional investors (DIIs) is offering the market some support.
On top of that, NSE's much-talked-about IPO opens for subscription today, and it's being counted as the country's second-largest public issue. During large issues like this, big institutional investors often pull some cash out of the secondary market to deploy into the new offering, which can put mild short-term pressure on liquidity. Put all of these factors together, and today's session will be shaped not just by chart patterns, but by the impact of these bigger events as well.
The Bottom Line
Both indices are telling a similar story right now — the sharp selling has paused, and the market is trying to build a base while it catches its breath, but there's still no firm evidence of a trend reversal. The 23,600 level for Nifty and 57,000 for Bank Nifty are the two levels that will decide whether this is just a temporary pullback or the start of a fresh uptrend.
For traders, the wiser approach in the current environment is to stay within the defined support-resistance range and wait for a clear breakout or breakdown, rather than assuming a direction in advance. Until Nifty decisively closes above 23,600 and Bank Nifty above 57,000, every bounce should be treated as a technical pullback rather than the start of a new rally. On the other hand, a break below the support levels mentioned would call for caution, since the corrective move could deepen from there.
Overall, today's session looks like a test of patience for investors and traders alike — where chart patterns, big global triggers, and institutional flows will all combine to decide the direction.
Source: Pabitro Mukherjee, Deputy Vice President-Research, Bajaj Broking
